The 2026 Playbook – A crystal ball of what to expect in the coming year.

Every time I think something positive is coming in agriculture, the world says, “Hold my beer”.

As I look ahead to the next few months in agriculture, all I see is fear selling on the backs of the primary producer. Where we once had advisors and organizations trying to help producers move forward and thrive, we now have companies telling them to take shelter or sell it all, lock, stock and barrel. I may be getting ahead of myself, but when sponsors of farm shows become real estate and life insurance companies, it feels like a shift in perspective.

The Banks

In the coming year, we are going to be told that banking is about to change. The ability to obtain financing will become more difficult, and continued growth in agriculture may end up more stagnant due to a lack of collaboration between the primary producer and the lending institutions. I think we need to look at this a different way, not using generalizations.

The truth:

The farms that know and manage their numbers will have an open cheque book; the banks want lower risk, and farms with strong ratios and land security are the definition of low risk.
Farms that have limited financial acumen and no ability to manage financial risk will be limited; expect higher interest rates, limited access to capital, and significantly tougher covenants on your lending obligations moving forward.
Consolidation continues as there are significant, diversified, strong operations that will use the bank collaborations as tools to move forward. Fear will make many operations complacent, and they will continue to lose ground.

The Land

If you believe land will fall, you are right; if you believe land will rise, you are also right. Until something in the industry says otherwise, nobody has a crystal ball. The realtors will tell you we are headed towards the 1980s all over again, while the banks continue to lend billions in Canadian agriculture land purchases. If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it probably is a duck.

The truth:

If land softens or falls, the majority of producers will have no effect; most operations have accumulated so much equity in their real estate that they can sustain 20% or more drops in land values and still wake up to farm another day.
For those operations that have played leverage tight on their real estate, we may see some land parcels up for sale. This does not mean judgment day, it means land will start to be treated as it should, as a commodity, not a hug.
The land market will always recover – whether through producer working capital, private equity, diversified operations, or other faucets, land will always remain a strong asset. The saying that “land is overpriced” has been around since I was a child, and guess what, it’s still overpriced.

The Markets

You manage what you measure; I could end this segment with one line. The ability to navigate the markets is not luck (as many would like you to think). The most successful farms at marketing know their numbers, create strategies, and utilize the tools available to them. Their movements are made based on profitable returns, not greed or emotion. I have seen primary production referred to as gambling – I believe this is an excuse for those who don’t know how to play the game.

The truth:

Even with inflated crop inputs and fixed expenses, there are still operations that are showing the ability to make a profit based on certain crops’ cost of production. Notice I said profit, not wealth. I believe for now the markets reflect the ability to pay your bills; savings may be another conversation.
If you don’t like marketing, start. Unless something in the world fundamentally changes, you will have short windows of time to take advantage of price spikes. For those farms that have the acumen to play the hedging market (bet on prices going up or down), you may still be able to see wealth, but it will take some risk.
Doing nothing is not a plan. In times of fear, I have seen operations frozen in time, with no ability to make the right or wrong decision. You may be selling certain grains at a loss (cereals on many operations), so what is the offset with other crops to cover this loss? Sometimes minimizing a loss is as good as fixing a profit.

The Grain

Irony is something I have become accustomed to in agriculture. For example, a year with high yields in most areas, but due to a drop in commodity markets, most farms are looking at break-even scenarios. Too many operations still talk in terms of yield; only when you can converse in terms such as margin, profit, or returns, are you able to fundamentally grasp why this has been ironic for the past year.

The truth:

For those who believe grain makes profit, I think you should sit down. Most operations for the past year were able to pay their bills because of above-average yields. For others, you were better off with government insurance, as the price of grain was probably fixed higher for the bushels you didn’t grow.
Banking on yields for future plans is not a strategy; it’s a hope. Forward project based on historical averages (10/5/3), identify areas of minimal profit, and fix your cost structures. To budget yields you grew once in your lifetime is a recipe for disaster.
Lastly, fertilize for what is probable. In years where the cost of inputs is high, don’t strategize for yields that are unattainable. Use the right resources for the current plan, and if the weatherman throws you a bone, use other means to swing for the fence (top dress or spread). Minimize the downside risk until you know the bottom line.

I wish I had all the answers; the truth is, I could be wrong or right on everything I said. I think the true message is don’t listen to the static around you. Make your own opinions around agriculture and what you believe is probable and possible. Too often, we make rash decisions based on “experts” who have a monetary gain in your decisions. You got to where you are today by doing things you did in the past. Trust your intuition, stay away from emotion, and first and foremost be self-aware.